RAY: This was sent in by someone named Christopher from Atlanta, who writes:
My friend, Max says to me, “I just read that three of the first five presidents of the United States died, ready for this? On the Fourth of July. What do you think the odds of that happening are?” I reply, “No idea. But, I'll give you 10-to-one odds that I can name at least one of the three.”
Now I don't know anything about the first five presidents, he writes, except that their names are: Washington, Adams, Jefferson, Madison and Monroe. In that order.
TOM: That's four more than I knew.
RAY: Yeah, me too. So the question is: How am I justified in offering my friend 10-to-one odds when, guessing randomly, I have only a three-in-five chance?
Since he know the order and Monroe is the last of the five he would be the guess. If Monroe was not one of the five the triva would be phrased counting the first four presidents. No need to extended the count to five unless the fifth one is part of the group.