Today is Population Census Day in Japan. And while it comes around every five years in Japan, Friday’s survey could be the first to provide concrete, stark evidence of the country’s dramatic population shrinkage.
Every five years (compared with every ten in the U.S.), the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications attempts to find out — among other things — the names, ages, nationalities and employment conditions of everyone living in Japan. Any national census is a statistical goldmine, and this year’s survey will be studied closely by policymakers desperate to find a way to revive Japan’s stuttering economy in the face of unprecedented demographic shifts.
In the post-war boom years, Japan had a population pyramid that looked like Mt. Fuji, with a broad spread of younger generations at its base. Japan enjoyed a 15.3% increase in population from 1945-1950 and a virile average rise of 5.7% in every survey after that until 1980. By the time of the last census in 2005, Japan’s population increase had shriveled to just 0.7% over the five years from 2000-05 (to 127.77 million). But breaking the figures down by the year within the survey period, the population actually fell by 20,000 in the last year of the survey (2004-05), the first drop since the end of World War II.
This year’s census will likely confirm that Japan’s population has entered a long phase of decline, as the country’s glacial but remorseless demographics — a rapidly aging society and a slowing birthrate -– start to flip over into an inverted pyramid and fundamentally alter the structure of its economy.
“The 2010 census will be the first to show an actual population loss (over the five years). We’ll be able to see that we’ve gone off the cliff.” says John Mock, a visiting professor at Temple University in Japan. “One of the things to look out for is whether the rate of depopulation is speeding up,” he says.
Japan’s population is forecast to shrink to just 95.15 million by 2050, according to the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, and coping with that demographic time bomb is one of the key challenges facing the country. It’s a challenge exacerbated by Japan’s sluggish economy, entrenched deflation and weak employment conditions, which Prof. Mock says make it difficult to see just how the country will be able to sustain a growing population of over-65s.
“It will be interesting to see (in the results of the census) what young Japanese people are doing for a living,” he says, noting that the number of people choosing ‘other’ as their category of occupation in the census has grown over the last 20 years. That suggests a lack of stable jobs, and a rise in the number of people doing low-skilled, low-paid work (known as ‘freeters’ in Japanese).
“If you have people making good solid incomes for the next 30 to 40 years, then it makes the problems easier,’ says Prof. Mock. “But if you have young people working in convenience stores, then their ability to carry the load is much weaker.”