Ted Cruz didn't defeat Donald Trump Monday night in Iowa.
Trump defeated himself.
I have no doubt that polls showing Trump leading in Iowa — and across the nation — have been largely accurate.
Trump is fresh, bold, brash and brave. His message is resonating with millions of Americans.
In some ways, he could be starting a Great Awakening in American politics, paving the way for "outsiders" to finally have their voice heard in Washington.
If Trump were elected president, it would be historic — the first "Citizen President." Every president to date has been a politician or general.
But Iowa underscores that Trump's great strengths can turn into fatal weaknesses, and this phenomena will make his gaining the nomination difficult.
Here's why.
Trump lost Iowa largely for one reason: he crushed Ben Carson.
Remember the likable doctor who was leading in Iowa polls?
Trump hit Dr. Ben hard, questioning his integrity and even his medical acumen.
Trump, as we know, is a super-effective communicator. Perhaps the best communicator ever fielded in a GOP race.
Trump used his verbal powers and eviscerated Carson. Carson's poll numbers collapsed, his campaign staff quit and his fundraising machine ground to a halt.
But it was a Pyrrhic victory for Trump because the Carson voters didn't back him — they switched to Cruz!
Poll numbers show Cruz's dramatic rise right after the Carson collapse.
Trump effectively defeated Carson to elect Cruz. Had Carson remained higher in the polls,
he would have become Cruz's target, and the pair would have divided the evangelical vote, paving the way for an easy Trump win. The lesson of Iowa is this: Reagan's 11th Commandment makes great political sense.
Reagan's directive famously said, "Thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow Republican."
The idea is that GOP rivals can and should vigorously disagree on policy matters — but personal attacks should be avoided at all costs.
Reagan himself fought a bitter primary against Gerald Ford in 1976. But Reagan's campaign was a battle for his ideas — never a personal attack on Ford.
After Iowa, I have little doubt that Donald Trump will continue to lead the GOP field heading into New Hampshire's primary.
But Trump has to remember that as every candidate drops out – especially grassroots conservatives like Rand Paul, Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, Carly Fiorina, and Rick Santorum — their supporters have to go somewhere.
Trump's sharp attacks on his fellow GOP rivals will make capturing these voters difficult. For the moment, Ted Cruz seems more inviting to them.
Back in November, after Trump had dominated the polls for so long, he should have made a strategic pivot to reach out to critics and take the high road.
He waited until tonight to do so. His concession speech was terrific, with a perfect tone.
"I love the people of Iowa," Trump said as he graciously congratulated Ted Cruz.
If Trump takes this new tack in the wake of Iowa, he just may win this yet.
He does'nt have to be. Only Reagan was Reagan so i am not sure why that matters. Right now, we need to just put someone in office to stop Obama's speeding train of destruction that is plunging us over the cliff.
What "shady" tactics? I like Cruz. Carson was going to peter out at some point, he just doesn't have the presence on camera to be POTUS. Smart man for sure. They need to stop attacking each other and attack Obama's policies!!
I agree, LGS, but Cruz is taking some heat currently for what his campaigners did in Iowa. Apparently Carson was going to return to FL after IA and not head to NH. CNN published a blurb indicating that Carson would not be going to NH. The Cruz people ran with it and told the IA delegates that Carson was no longer running, and a vote for Carson would be for nil. So he won over Carson's votes. Carson is still in the race and did not have any intent of bowing out, he just was going home before heading over to NH.
I agree, LGS, but Cruz is taking some heat currently for what his campaigners did in Iowa. Apparently Carson was going to return to FL after IA and not head to NH. CNN published a blurb indicating that Carson would not be going to NH. The Cruz people ran with it and told the IA delegates that Carson was no longer running, and a vote for Carson would be for nil. So he won over Carson's votes. Carson is still in the race and did not have any intent of bowing out, he just was going home before heading over to NH.
That isn't why Cruz won. That wasn't even reported until AFTER the caucus. And Fox speculated that Carson was suspending his campaign. That Carson was going to Florida and had no plans to go to NH and was planning to instead go the DC prayer breakfast. So, yeah, in the midst of this, I don't think that was an unfair conclusion. Carson should know that the next look is NH and not be babbling about going home to get "clean clothes" or whatever. It gave the appearance that he was throwing in the towel. Yes, CNN and Fox should not have reported it that way but you can't blame the Cruz camp for what they heard in the news. And, if Carson wants to win, then go out and win and stop whining. The whining obviously didn't help Trump and it won't help Carson either. It's a long race. Get in it to win it and do the work.
I don't blame Cruz and I agree with you about Carson. I was merely pointing out that Cruz is getting blamed (by the Carson camp) for Carson's lack of appeal in IA. I think it's Carson's own damned fault, personally. He doesn't act like he wants this very much. Blaming Trump now was news to me.
Oh, ok. Must have misunderstood. The Presidency is a grueling race. That is just the way it is. If he wants it, he has to fight for it. They all do. Yeah, life isn't "fair", oh well. Suck it up and give it your best shot.
I agree, LGS, but Cruz is taking some heat currently for what his campaigners did in Iowa. Apparently Carson was going to return to FL after IA and not head to NH. CNN published a blurb indicating that Carson would not be going to NH. The Cruz people ran with it and told the IA delegates that Carson was no longer running, and a vote for Carson would be for nil. So he won over Carson's votes. Carson is still in the race and did not have any intent of bowing out, he just was going home before heading over to NH.
He also sent campaign. Flers telling people they had not voted and that was against state law or something similar
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Sometimes you're the windshield, and sometimes you're the bug.
Carson bombed out in the last debate. He was nonexistent. And, when he talks he is very slow to get out his point. So, he can run around and blame Cruz if he wants to but that's on him.
I agree, LGS, but Cruz is taking some heat currently for what his campaigners did in Iowa. Apparently Carson was going to return to FL after IA and not head to NH. CNN published a blurb indicating that Carson would not be going to NH. The Cruz people ran with it and told the IA delegates that Carson was no longer running, and a vote for Carson would be for nil. So he won over Carson's votes. Carson is still in the race and did not have any intent of bowing out, he just was going home before heading over to NH.
He also sent campaign. Flers telling people they had not voted and that was against state law or something similar
No, what he did was legal. It was in poor taste, yes, but it was his attempt to get people out to vote. The last few elections, the establishment refused to get out and vote if their man didn't win the nomination. It's a problem. He went about it the wrong way, I agree. Then, to make matters worse, Rubio and Paul jumped on that faux pas bandwagon and sent out their own voter violation flyers. So no, it wasn't against any state law. But it was misleading.
Just an FYI, Obama used a similar method in 2012 and no one called him out on it.
Carson bombed out in the last debate. He was nonexistent. And, when he talks he is very slow to get out his point. So, he can run around and blame Cruz if he wants to but that's on him.
I can't believe any well-informed delegate would believe it. Not sure about his stance on choice, but I have heard him say over and over that he would repeal obamacare.
I understand now that Cruz told Iowans that Trump was in favor of obamacare and choice.
Well, one of the articles says -
Trump compared the rumors with Cruz’s running anti-Trump ads claiming Trump supported Obamacare. Cruz has gone out of his way to highlight Trump’s past support for liberal-leaning policies, including on healthcare, but Trump has promised to repeal Obama’s signature healthcare legislation.
If Trump has, in fact, support liberal policies before, that's fair ground. What you HAVE done is a bit more important that what you promise to do in the future, don't you think? That's like having a voting record against gun control and yet promising to promote gun control in the future. Flip-flopping is the candidates position to defend - people can still use it against you.
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LawyerLady
I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.
I like that he isn't afraid to speak his mind. But, I dont' see the point of attacking other Repos. I don't believe that is going to help him win. And, they arent the problem, it is the policies of Obama and what Hilary or Bernie want to do that are bad for this country. I want him to make his case in that regard.
I'm not appreciating Trump's sour grapes today. He chose not to do the debate in Iowa, and his taking offense on Carson's behalf is laughable.
I agree with this. He is blaming everyone but himself for his loss today. Carson, Cruz, and the Iowa voters themselves. He lost because he didn't do the debate and he didn't have a ground game. They interviewed people in Iowa and a huge majority of them said him not going to the debate made a difference.
And Trump only changed his positions when he began running for the presidency. I think it's fair game to bring that up.
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“You may shoot me with your words, you may cut me with your eyes, you may kill me with your hatefulness, but still, like air, I'll rise!” ― Maya Angelou